The complete public archive of Hamer Intelligence Services — alerts, analysis, forecasts, threat assessments, and daily briefs. Filter by type, severity, theater, time window, or full-text search.
China’s new construction starts fell 22.6% YoY in Jan–May and urban fixed investment dropped 4.1% YoY, underscoring persistent property sector weakness. This compounds existing concerns about Chinese demand for metals, …
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia’s Poltava area, adding to the pattern of cross‑border attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. While asset scale is not yet confirmed, the incident marginally t…
A U.S. Air Force B‑52 strategic bomber reportedly crashed near Edwards Air Force Base in California on Monday, with eight crew members said to have been killed. If confirmed, the loss would hit one of Washington’s core …
China’s May retail sales fell 0.6% YoY versus an expected 0.2% decline, and new home prices extended their month-on-month drop, underscoring continued weakness in domestic consumption and property. Together with a sligh…
By 01:30 UTC, Ecuadorian market reports said WTI crude had dropped about 5% to $80.3/bbl after an MoU was announced to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A prospective normalization of the world’s most cri…
A new FARC-EP video shows a female fighter carrying an AK-103 assault rifle with optic, a weapon type believed to originate from Venezuela. The image will sharpen concerns in Bogotá and beyond that Colombia’s insurgents…
Ukrainian drones reportedly struck oil depots in Russia’s Yaroslavl and Krasnodar regions, damaging storage tanks hundreds of kilometres from the front line. The attacks put Russian energy infrastructure, local communit…
Eight U.S. service members died when a bomber crashed during a routine training flight in California, with the cause still unknown. The loss hits families, squadrons and commanders alike, and will intensify scrutiny of …
A Hezbollah‑launched 358 surface‑to‑air missile reportedly shot down an Israeli Heron reconnaissance drone over Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, showcasing a growing non‑state air defense threat. For Israeli planners, Hezbollah …
Iran now says the Strait of Hormuz will not have ‘tolls’ but will charge undefined ‘fees’, a semantic shift that leaves tanker operators and import‑dependent states guessing about future costs and control. For ship crew…
Russian troops reportedly raised their flag in Krasny Gorodok, south of Kostiantynivka, while intensified FPV drone strikes hit Ukrainian vehicles and infantry positions in nearby rear zones. The twin moves put Ukrainia…
China’s industrial output in May grew 4.5% year‑on‑year, slightly beating expectations, even as retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%. The split recovery leaves factory owners, workers and global suppliers facing a famili…
Washington’s pledge to help Iran eliminate enriched uranium under IAEA oversight signals a new phase in nuclear diplomacy, even as domestic politics on both sides remain volatile. For Iranian technicians, IAEA inspector…
Reports at 01:02 UTC say a Hezbollah‑operated 358 surface‑to‑air missile hit an Israeli Heron reconnaissance UAV over Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, highlighting a steady upgrade in non‑state air defenses. If confirmed, Israel…
Iranian officials say the Strait of Hormuz will not have ‘tolls’ but will have ‘fees,’ while the US announces it will assist Iran and the IAEA in destroying enriched uranium. Combined with prior reports of a US–Iran dea…
Ukrainian drones reportedly struck oil depots at the Palkino oil pumping station in Yaroslavl region and the Tamanneftegaz terminal in Krasnodar Krai, both hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine. This extends the ongoing c…
Around 00:16 UTC, US officials said Washington will assist Iran, alongside the IAEA, in destroying enriched uranium stockpiles. The move sharpens Iran’s shift away from weapon‑grade capability and strengthens the credib…
Around 00:15–00:20 UTC on 16 June, U.S. and Iranian signals pointed to a structurally different Gulf landscape: Washington says it will help Iran destroy enriched uranium with the IAEA, while Tehran outlines a ‘fees not…
At 00:00 UTC on 16 June, reports said Israeli PM Netanyahu formally hosted Somaliland’s president to celebrate the ‘start’ of a strategic alliance, praising mutual commitment and Somaliland’s record of stability. This m…
Reports at 00:00–00:01 UTC say Israeli PM Netanyahu and Somaliland’s president have formally launched a ‘strategic alliance’ in Jerusalem, with Somaliland praising Israel’s ‘courage’ in engaging where others ‘had fear’.…
Emerging OSINT points to two separate but strategic moves: footage posted at 00:02 UTC claims to show Russian Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles over Kyiv last night, while 00:00 UTC reports say Israel and Somaliland hav…
Two nuclear‑capable strategic bombers—an American B‑52 and a Russian Tu‑22M3—have reportedly crashed within hours of each other, killing eight U.S. crew while the Russian crew survived. The twin incidents will intensify…
A US‑sanctioned VLCC reportedly spoofed its location, slipped past the US Navy blockade line, and is loading 2 million barrels of Iranian crude, with additional NITC tankers moving. This signals rapid normalization of I…
The US president has formally announced a completed peace agreement with Iran and the immediate end of the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This confirms and consolidates earlier reports of easing, pointing to …
Within hours on 15 June, a U.S. B‑52 with eight crew and a Russian Tu‑22M3 strategic bomber went down in separate incidents in California and Irkutsk Oblast. The rare same‑day loss of two nuclear‑capable platforms for o…
A U.S. B‑52 strategic bomber crashed after takeoff at Edwards Air Force Base around 22:08–22:32 UTC, with all eight crew now reported dead. In a separate event, a Russian Tu‑22M3 strategic bomber crashed during training…
Within 24 hours, Air Force Global Strike Command is likely to order at least temporary safety stand-downs or intensive inspections for portions of the B‑52 fleet following the Edwards crash. Operational nuclear and conv…
Over the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch at least one additional long-range drone wave targeting Russian refineries or fuel depots, following hits on Nizhnekamsk, Rybinsk, and other facilities. Russian air de…
In the coming 24 hours, at least one further incident involving IRGC warning shots, drone overflights, or aggressive intercepts of commercial or foreign naval vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz is likely, even as t…
Within 24 hours, Iran and Qatar are likely to issue carefully framed public statements affirming the new navigation understanding while avoiding explicit acknowledgment of financial quid pro quos. Tehran will emphasize …
Over the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to issue sharp rhetorical criticism of the US–Iran accord, portraying it as proof of Western hypocrisy on sanctions while signaling that Iranian barrels will compete with Russian…
Within 24 hours, Brent crude prices are likely to drift further downward from ~$83 toward the high‑$70s to low‑$80s range as traders internalize the durability of the Hormuz reopening and a prospective $300 billion Iran…
Over the next 24 hours, wholesale diesel prices in Russia’s southern and agricultural regions are likely to record another noticeable jump as the Tatneft Nizhnekamsk halt compounds prior outages, reinforcing reports of …
Within 24 hours, localized reports from southern Russia are likely to show farmers idling equipment, rationing diesel, or delaying planting and field maintenance due to fuel unavailability and price spikes. While the im…
In the next 24 hours, the reported Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC will prompt neighboring states and aid agencies to initiate or expand border health screenings, deploy rapid response teams, and pre-position medical supp…
Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to extend its drone and missile campaign beyond inland refineries to include at least one significant fuel or storage facility associated with export ports on the Baltic or Bl…
Within seven days, US Strategic Command will likely adjust bomber and submarine signaling patterns—slightly increased SSBN visibility, selective B‑2/B‑1 deployments, or joint exercises—to offset any perception of weaken…
Over the next seven days, low-intensity but regular rocket, drone, and artillery exchanges between Hezbollah and the IDF along the Lebanese border are likely to continue, even as diplomatic work on a broader ceasefire f…
Within seven days, the US administration is likely to initiate behind-the-scenes legal and financial structuring for the proposed $300 billion Iran fund—identifying Gulf and possibly European contributors and custodial …
Over the next week, the EU is likely to announce at least one concrete step deepening Ukraine’s integration—accelerated accession benchmarks, industrial co-production funding, or long-term security assistance commitment…
Across the next seven days, refining margins for diesel and gasoline are likely to remain structurally high relative to sliding crude prices as one‑third of Russian refining stays offline and Ukrainian strikes hinder re…
In the coming week, market commentary and trading behavior are likely to increasingly focus on the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve being at its lowest level since 1983, leading to sharper price reactions to any new geopo…
Over the next seven days, Russia’s renewed mass strike campaign is likely to include at least one high-casualty attack on a Ukrainian urban or cultural target, adding to recent hits on Kyiv film studios and other civili…
Within a week, the de facto end of the Hormuz blockade is likely to translate into modest but noticeable easing of fuel price and shipping cost pressures in highly import-dependent countries across South Asia, East Afri…
Over the next 30 days, sustained Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure are likely to push Moscow into de facto fuel rationing for both civilian and military sectors, constraining the tempo and g…
Within 30 days, Iran’s IRGC is likely to use the political umbrella of the Hormuz agreement to normalize a denser naval, missile, and drone presence around the strait, arguing it is guaranteeing security while quietly i…
Over the next 30 days, as the Hormuz deal holds and work on the $300 billion fund progresses, Iran is likely to ramp up visible crude exports and sign preliminary energy or investment agreements with Qatar, select Afric…
Within 30 days, Russia is likely to weave the US B‑52 crash into a broader information campaign portraying Western militaries as overstretched and unsafe, using this narrative in outreach to African, Latin American, and…
Over the next month, Russian diesel shortages, constrained grain logistics, and persistent war risk will likely push global food prices moderately higher, with wheat and sunflower oil leading the move. Russian export vo…
Within 30 days, sustained de-escalation in the Gulf and clearer institutionalization of the US–Iran Hormuz framework are likely to support relative outperformance of Gulf and select emerging market equities versus devel…