Threat Forecast — Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, Iraq (24h)
Theater: Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, Iraq
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-03-24
Risk level: CRITICAL
Executive summary
The region has seen high-intensity PMF missile attacks and drone strikes on Peshmerga (including in Soran), amid a wider Iran–Gulf–U.S.–Israel escalation. With Iran expanding missile and drone strikes across regional energy and military sites, Kurdistan faces imminent risk of further cross-border attacks on Peshmerga, U.S., and energy-related targets.
Key indicators we're watching
- Movement or mobilization of PMF and IRGC-aligned units within range of Kurdistan
- Increased drone and missile launch signatures from western Iran and central Iraq
Forecasts are generated from open-source signal data (event tracking, conflict telemetry, and analyst review) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →