Published: · Region: Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, Iraq · Severity: CRITICAL · Category: Forecast

Threat Forecast — Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, Iraq (24h)

Theater: Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, Iraq
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-03-24
Risk level: CRITICAL

Full risk analysis

The region has seen high-intensity PMF missile attacks and drone strikes on Peshmerga (including in Soran), amid a wider Iran–Gulf–U.S.–Israel escalation. With Iran expanding missile and drone strikes across regional energy and military sites, Kurdistan faces imminent risk of further cross-border attacks on Peshmerga, U.S., and energy-related targets.

Current risk: 9/10 · Predicted risk: 9/10

Drivers

Indicators

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →