# Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, Iraq — 24h threat outlook

*Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 9:35 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Risk Level**: CRITICAL
**Current → Predicted**: 9/10 → 9/10
**Published**: 2026-03-24T09:35:06.406Z (39d ago)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/threat-forecasts/19.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/predictive-forecasting

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The region has seen high-intensity PMF missile attacks and drone strikes on Peshmerga (including in Soran), amid a wider Iran–Gulf–U.S.–Israel escalation. With Iran expanding missile and drone strikes across regional energy and military sites, Kurdistan faces imminent risk of further cross-border attacks on Peshmerga, U.S., and energy-related targets.

## Drivers

- Regional war escalation following Iranian strikes and leadership change in Tehran
- Presence of Peshmerga, U.S., and energy infrastructure seen as hostile or strategic by Iran-aligned actors

## Indicators

- Movement or mobilization of PMF and IRGC-aligned units within range of Kurdistan
- Increased drone and missile launch signatures from western Iran and central Iraq