US–Israel Conduct Large Coordinated Strike Package Against Iranian Targets
Theater: Iran
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-05-16
Moderate confidence (61%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL
Executive summary
Within 7 days, the US and Israel are likely to execute the reported largest strike package against Iran since the last ceasefire, targeting IRGC infrastructure, missile and drone sites, and potentially naval assets related to Hormuz control. The operation will likely involve stand-off munitions, cyber elements, and possible covert support from regional basing, aiming to degrade Iran's capacity for rapid re-escalation. Iran will respond with missile and drone attacks against US and allied facilities in the region and perhaps attempts at harassment of shipping, but will likely try to avoid a full-scale prolonged war given domestic economic strain. The risk of miscalculation leading to broader regional conflict will materially increase…
Key indicators we're watching
- NYT-sourced report that US and Israel are preparing the largest strike package as early as next week
- Iranian statements about preparing for resumed war and hardening its Hormuz posture
- Historical pattern of US-Israel coordinated operations when Iranian threats escalate
- High oil prices reflecting a market expectation of substantial risk of new strikes
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →