Diesel and Gasoline Crack Spreads Widen on Russian Refinery Outages and US Inventory Draws
Theater: Europe (ARA hub)
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-05-13
Moderate confidence (78%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH
Executive summary
Over the next 24 hours, diesel and gasoline crack spreads are likely to widen further as traders price the complete shutdown of Russia’s Perm refinery, fresh damage at Taman, and significant US gasoline inventory declines. European and LatAm product markets will show particular sensitivity because of reliance on Russian exports and tightening regional balances. Spot premiums for prompt barrels in key hubs (ARA, USGC) should increase, even if outright crude prices are already elevated. Refining equities and complex refiners stand to benefit.
Key indicators we're watching
- Reuters reporting that Perm refinery is fully offline with potentially lengthy repairs
- Multiple Ukrainian drone hits on Taman/Tamanneftegaz terminal and loading pier
- Large US gasoline inventory decline (~4.1M bbl)
- Generalized fuel shortage reported in Ecuador signaling regional product tightness
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →