# [24H] Diesel and Gasoline Crack Spreads Widen on Russian Refinery Outages and US Inventory Draws

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:31 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T15:31:24.473Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-14T15:31:24.473Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 78% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Europe (ARA hub), Black Sea region, Latin America (Andean region, especially Ecuador), United States Gulf Coast
**Affected Assets**: Diesel/gasoil crack spreads, RBOB gasoline crack spreads, European and US refining equities, Russian oil product exports and freight rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9405.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, diesel and gasoline crack spreads are likely to widen further as traders price the complete shutdown of Russia’s Perm refinery, fresh damage at Taman, and significant US gasoline inventory declines. European and LatAm product markets will show particular sensitivity because of reliance on Russian exports and tightening regional balances. Spot premiums for prompt barrels in key hubs (ARA, USGC) should increase, even if outright crude prices are already elevated. Refining equities and complex refiners stand to benefit.

## Drivers

- Reuters reporting that Perm refinery is fully offline with potentially lengthy repairs
- Multiple Ukrainian drone hits on Taman/Tamanneftegaz terminal and loading pier
- Large US gasoline inventory decline (~4.1M bbl)
- Generalized fuel shortage reported in Ecuador signaling regional product tightness