Sustained Energy Shock Keeps Brent Above $95 and Tightens Global Refining Margins
Theater: Global
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-05-13
Moderate confidence (75%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL
Executive summary
Over the next week, the combination of Iran-related Hormuz risk, Russian–Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, and Ecuador’s potential export constraints will sustain Brent prices above roughly $95 per barrel and compress spare refining capacity in key markets. Refined product cracks, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, will remain elevated as refiners preemptively secure crude and adjust runs. Import-dependent developing states will face deteriorating trade balances, while inflation expectations tick up in advanced economies. Central banks will not shift policy abruptly in this window but will signal heightened vigilance.
Key indicators we're watching
- Sustained energy supply shocks and sanctions realignment trend
- WTI above $100 and widening risk premia from Gulf tensions
- Ecuador’s warning about fuel shortages and potential production cuts
- Ukrainian and Russian operations threatening energy infrastructure
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →