# [7D] Sustained Energy Shock Keeps Brent Above $95 and Tightens Global Refining Margins

*Issued Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at 3:30 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-13T03:30:55.707Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-20T03:30:55.707Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Gulf, Europe, Latin America
**Affected Assets**: Brent crude, Diesel and jet crack spreads, Energy-importer currencies, Global inflation-linked bonds
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9352.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, the combination of Iran-related Hormuz risk, Russian–Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, and Ecuador’s potential export constraints will sustain Brent prices above roughly $95 per barrel and compress spare refining capacity in key markets. Refined product cracks, particularly for diesel and jet fuel, will remain elevated as refiners preemptively secure crude and adjust runs. Import-dependent developing states will face deteriorating trade balances, while inflation expectations tick up in advanced economies. Central banks will not shift policy abruptly in this window but will signal heightened vigilance.

## Drivers

- Sustained energy supply shocks and sanctions realignment trend
- WTI above $100 and widening risk premia from Gulf tensions
- Ecuador’s warning about fuel shortages and potential production cuts
- Ukrainian and Russian operations threatening energy infrastructure