Brent crude remains above $105 with intraday spikes; refined product cracks widen on Russia and Ecuador refinery stress
Theater: Global oil market
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-05-12
Moderate confidence (75%)
Risk direction: volatile · Impact: CRITICAL
Executive summary
Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade persistently above $105 per barrel, with spikes potentially exceeding $110 on headline risk from the US–Iran blockade and Hormuz legal tension. Russian refinery disruptions at Perm, combined with Ecuador’s Esmeraldas refinery near-collapse, will tighten regional refined-product balances, widening gasoline and diesel crack spreads, particularly in Europe and Latin America. WTI will likely hold above $98–100, reflecting global risk premia rather than purely US fundamentals. Volatility will be elevated, with markets very sensitive to any additional maritime or refinery incident.
Key indicators we're watching
- CENTCOM reports of 65 ships diverted and 4 disabled with Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked
- Brent already trading above $107 and WTI above $100
- Fresh fires at Russia’s Perm refinery and severe issues at Ecuador’s Esmeraldas refinery
- Emerging trend of energy supply shocks and sanctions realignment deepening global stress
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →