# [24H] Brent crude remains above $105 with intraday spikes; refined product cracks widen on Russia and Ecuador refinery stress

*Issued Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 3:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-12T15:35:05.195Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-13T15:35:05.195Z (22h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil market, Europe, Middle East, Latin America
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gasoline futures (RBOB), Diesel/gasoil futures, Tanker freight rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9285.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to trade persistently above $105 per barrel, with spikes potentially exceeding $110 on headline risk from the US–Iran blockade and Hormuz legal tension. Russian refinery disruptions at Perm, combined with Ecuador’s Esmeraldas refinery near-collapse, will tighten regional refined-product balances, widening gasoline and diesel crack spreads, particularly in Europe and Latin America. WTI will likely hold above $98–100, reflecting global risk premia rather than purely US fundamentals. Volatility will be elevated, with markets very sensitive to any additional maritime or refinery incident.

## Drivers

- CENTCOM reports of 65 ships diverted and 4 disabled with Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked
- Brent already trading above $107 and WTI above $100
- Fresh fires at Russia’s Perm refinery and severe issues at Ecuador’s Esmeraldas refinery
- Emerging trend of energy supply shocks and sanctions realignment deepening global stress