Ecuador’s gasoline and diesel shortages begin to disrupt domestic transport and near-term exports
Theater: Quito
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-05-11
Moderate confidence (74%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH
Executive summary
Over the next 24 hours, Ecuador’s deepening shortages of gasoline and diesel in Quito and Guayaquil will cause increasing disruption to urban transport, local supply chains, and possibly short-term crude and refined product export logistics. Trucking and bus operators in affected regions will intensify service suspensions or slowdowns, amplifying economic stress just days after subsidy removals. The government will attempt to reassure markets with statements and limited emergency measures, but refueling queues and rationing will persist. Regional refined product spreads in the Andean and Pacific coast markets will remain supported as traders price in potential import demand from Ecuador and logistical risks at its terminals. Sovereign credit and currency markets…
Key indicators we're watching
- Multiple warnings detailing fuel shortages, queues, and missing grades in Quito and Guayaquil and prior refinery outage
- Fuel subsidy removal leading to transport halts and reported rationing
- SOUTHCOM assessment citing mounting internal governance and fuel issues
- Reports of protests and social discontent linked to mobility and subsidy changes
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →