# [24H] Ecuador’s gasoline and diesel shortages begin to disrupt domestic transport and near-term exports

*Issued Monday, May 11, 2026 at 8:44 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-11T20:44:43.224Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-12T20:44:43.224Z (19h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 74% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Quito, Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Broader Ecuador, Andean refined product market
**Affected Assets**: Regional gasoline and diesel swaps/cracks (Latin America Pacific coast), Ecuador sovereign bonds, Ecuadorian sucre/dollarization-related risk perception, Local transportation and retail sectors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/9165.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Ecuador’s deepening shortages of gasoline and diesel in Quito and Guayaquil will cause increasing disruption to urban transport, local supply chains, and possibly short-term crude and refined product export logistics. Trucking and bus operators in affected regions will intensify service suspensions or slowdowns, amplifying economic stress just days after subsidy removals. The government will attempt to reassure markets with statements and limited emergency measures, but refueling queues and rationing will persist. Regional refined product spreads in the Andean and Pacific coast markets will remain supported as traders price in potential import demand from Ecuador and logistical risks at its terminals. Sovereign credit and currency markets may begin to price higher political and fiscal risk, but major repricing is more likely over the week than within a single day.

## Drivers

- Multiple warnings detailing fuel shortages, queues, and missing grades in Quito and Guayaquil and prior refinery outage
- Fuel subsidy removal leading to transport halts and reported rationing
- SOUTHCOM assessment citing mounting internal governance and fuel issues
- Reports of protests and social discontent linked to mobility and subsidy changes