Published: · Region: Russia · Category: Forecast

Russia–Ukraine Strategic Drone Duel Intensifies With More Strikes on Refineries and Power

Theater: Russia
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-09-25
Moderate confidence (75%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL

Full prediction

Over the next seven days, Russia and Ukraine are likely to escalate their long-range drone and missile campaigns against each other’s energy and industrial infrastructure, with Russia targeting Ukrainian power and data centers and Ukraine hitting Russian refineries and logistics hubs. The Perm refinery strike is a template for further Ukrainian attempts to erode Russia’s export capacity, while Moscow’s strikes on urban areas aim to sap morale and strain defenses. This mutual industrial attrition will increase volatility in global fuel markets and pressures NATO capitals to accelerate air-defense and drone production support for Kyiv. Confirmation would be additional refinery or power-plant hits and retaliatory patterns; disconfirmation would require a negotiated or de facto restraint on infrastructure targeting, which is unlikely.

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Affected regions

Affected assets

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →