# [7D] Russia–Ukraine Strategic Drone Duel Intensifies With More Strikes on Refineries and Power

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 9:12 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T21:12:28.315Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-02T21:12:28.315Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia, Ukraine, European energy-importing states
**Affected Assets**: Urals and ESPO crude differentials, European diesel and gasoline supply, Defense and drone-manufacturing equities, European power prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26453.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Russia and Ukraine are likely to escalate their long-range drone and missile campaigns against each other’s energy and industrial infrastructure, with Russia targeting Ukrainian power and data centers and Ukraine hitting Russian refineries and logistics hubs. The Perm refinery strike is a template for further Ukrainian attempts to erode Russia’s export capacity, while Moscow’s strikes on urban areas aim to sap morale and strain defenses. This mutual industrial attrition will increase volatility in global fuel markets and pressures NATO capitals to accelerate air-defense and drone production support for Kyiv. Confirmation would be additional refinery or power-plant hits and retaliatory patterns; disconfirmation would require a negotiated or de facto restraint on infrastructure targeting, which is unlikely.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of mutual deep-strike drone campaigns as industrial attrition duel
- Recent drone strike shutting Russia’s Perm refinery
- Airstrikes on Ukrainian data centers and repeated attacks on Kyiv