Published: · Region: Ukraine · Category: Forecast

Russian Long-Range Drone Barrages on Ukraine Continue After Perm Refinery Strike

Theater: Ukraine
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-09-25
Moderate confidence (75%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH

Full prediction

In the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to sustain or repeat large-scale drone barrages—on the order of dozens of UAVs—against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure in retaliation for the Perm refinery attack. The objective will be to reassert deterrence by punishment and complicate Ukraine’s air defense resource allocation. This will raise civilian casualty risk and strain Ukraine’s power grid on the eve of winter, increasing pressure on European support. Confirmation would be new salvos exceeding 50 drones or missiles in a single night; denial would be a sudden lull paired with Russian diplomatic messaging about restraint.

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →