# [24H] Russian Long-Range Drone Barrages on Ukraine Continue After Perm Refinery Strike

*Issued Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:12 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-25T19:12:43.712Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-26T19:12:43.712Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Russia, Eastern Europe
**Affected Assets**: European power utilities, EU carbon markets, Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH), Defense and air-defense manufacturers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/26412.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to sustain or repeat large-scale drone barrages—on the order of dozens of UAVs—against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure in retaliation for the Perm refinery attack. The objective will be to reassert deterrence by punishment and complicate Ukraine’s air defense resource allocation. This will raise civilian casualty risk and strain Ukraine’s power grid on the eve of winter, increasing pressure on European support. Confirmation would be new salvos exceeding 50 drones or missiles in a single night; denial would be a sudden lull paired with Russian diplomatic messaging about restraint.

## Drivers

- Reports of Russia launching 162 strike UAVs against Ukraine within the recent window
- Drone strike shutting down Russia’s Perm refinery, demonstrating Ukrainian or aligned long-range reach
- Emerging trend of mutual deep-strike drone campaigns turning the war into an industrial attrition duel