Published: · Region: Global · Category: Forecast

Sustained MENA Supply Shocks and Chokepoint Risks Keep Brent Averaging Above $110 for a Month

Theater: Global
Time horizon: 30d
Published: 2026-09-15
Moderate confidence (63%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL

Full prediction

Over the next 30 days, absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or rapid restoration of Saudi and Libyan capacity, the combination of Hormuz constraints, Bab al‑Mandab risk, Saudi cargo cancellations, and Iraqi sanctions fear is likely to keep Brent crude averaging above $110/bbl. Refiners will pass costs into products, locking in elevated diesel and jet prices and feeding inflation that undermines monetary easing plans in Europe and emerging markets. Political pressure for windfall taxes, price caps, or emergency SPR releases will rise significantly in OECD states. Confirmation would be sustained backwardation and refining margins along with policy debates on fuel support; denial would require unexpectedly fast repair of Saudi infrastructure and easing of chokepoint tensions.

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Affected regions

Affected assets

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →