# [30D] Sustained MENA Supply Shocks and Chokepoint Risks Keep Brent Averaging Above $110 for a Month

*Issued Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 9:45 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-15T21:45:49.877Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-10-15T21:45:49.877Z (30d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 63% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Europe, Asia, Africa
**Affected Assets**: Brent and WTI futures, Refined product futures (diesel, jet fuel, gasoline), Global airline and shipping equities, Inflation‑sensitive currencies and bonds
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/25082.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 30 days, absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or rapid restoration of Saudi and Libyan capacity, the combination of Hormuz constraints, Bab al‑Mandab risk, Saudi cargo cancellations, and Iraqi sanctions fear is likely to keep Brent crude averaging above $110/bbl. Refiners will pass costs into products, locking in elevated diesel and jet prices and feeding inflation that undermines monetary easing plans in Europe and emerging markets. Political pressure for windfall taxes, price caps, or emergency SPR releases will rise significantly in OECD states. Confirmation would be sustained backwardation and refining margins along with policy debates on fuel support; denial would require unexpectedly fast repair of Saudi infrastructure and easing of chokepoint tensions.

## Drivers

- Multiple FLASH alerts of oil and diesel surging past $105 on MENA disruptions
- Global fuel crisis assessment citing drained stocks
- Layered risks from Hormuz closure, Bab al‑Mandab mining, and Iraqi sanctions threats