Published: · Region: Global · Category: Forecast

Brent Crude Extends Above $100 as Dual Hormuz–Bab el-Mandeb Squeeze Deepens

Theater: Global
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-09-11
Moderate confidence (79%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL

Full prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to remain above $100 and test additional upside as markets fully price a simultaneous squeeze at Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb. With Houthis claiming full control of Bab el‑Mandeb and Mayun Island while Hormuz tanker traffic plunges, traders will add a structural risk premium rather than treating disruptions as transient. This will pressure refiners’ margins and import-dependent currencies, particularly in Asia and Europe, and accelerate discussions about emergency stock releases. Confirmation would be Brent holding above $100 with intraday spikes on any new incident reports; denial would be a rapid, coordinated assurance by major powers accompanied by visible de-escalation at both chokepoints.

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →