# [24H] Brent Crude Extends Above $100 as Dual Hormuz–Bab el-Mandeb Squeeze Deepens

*Issued Friday, September 11, 2026 at 5:31 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-11T05:31:29.302Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-12T05:31:29.302Z (20h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 79% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Europe, East Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, European refinery equities, Indian rupee, Turkish lira
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/24490.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 24 hours, Brent crude is likely to remain above $100 and test additional upside as markets fully price a simultaneous squeeze at Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb. With Houthis claiming full control of Bab el‑Mandeb and Mayun Island while Hormuz tanker traffic plunges, traders will add a structural risk premium rather than treating disruptions as transient. This will pressure refiners’ margins and import-dependent currencies, particularly in Asia and Europe, and accelerate discussions about emergency stock releases. Confirmation would be Brent holding above $100 with intraday spikes on any new incident reports; denial would be a rapid, coordinated assurance by major powers accompanied by visible de-escalation at both chokepoints.

## Drivers

- Data showing fewer than 10 vessels transiting Hormuz amid an ongoing US–Iran war
- Houthi consolidation and claimed full control of Bab el‑Mandeb and Mayun Island
- Existing crude trade back above $100 and market sensitivity to incremental shocks