Published: · Region: Western Russia · Category: Forecast

Ukraine Expands Long-Range Drone Campaign on Russian Refineries and Fuel Depots

Theater: Western Russia
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-09-02
Moderate confidence (75%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH

Full prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to conduct several additional long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries, fuel depots, and possibly export terminals, seeking to compound damage like that seen at Kstovo. These attacks will aim to erode Russian fuel availability for the military and generate global energy market leverage, while forcing Russia to divert air defenses inward. Confirmation would be new verified strikes on Russian energy facilities beyond the frontline; falsification would be a noticeable pause in such operations despite Russia’s grid-strike threats.

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Affected regions

Affected assets

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →