# [7D] Ukraine Expands Long-Range Drone Campaign on Russian Refineries and Fuel Depots

*Issued Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 9:43 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-09-02T21:43:07.807Z (1h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-09-09T21:43:07.807Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia, Volga Region, Near-Moscow Industrial Belt, Black Sea Export Ports
**Affected Assets**: Russian Refined Product Exports, Urals Blend Differentials, European Diesel and Gasoil Markets, Russian Domestic Fuel Prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/23303.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to conduct several additional long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries, fuel depots, and possibly export terminals, seeking to compound damage like that seen at Kstovo. These attacks will aim to erode Russian fuel availability for the military and generate global energy market leverage, while forcing Russia to divert air defenses inward. Confirmation would be new verified strikes on Russian energy facilities beyond the frontline; falsification would be a noticeable pause in such operations despite Russia’s grid-strike threats.

## Drivers

- Established pattern of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
- Confirmed significant damage at Kstovo refinery
- Russia’s visible anti-drone shielding of fuel depots around Moscow
- Emerging trend: Ukraine escalates strategic strikes on Russian energy