Iranian Kheibar Shekan Salvos Intensify Against US-Linked Bases in Jordan and Iraq
Theater: Jordan
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-07-25
Moderate confidence (60%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL
Executive summary
Over the next seven days, Iran and aligned militias are likely to conduct additional Kheibar Shekan or similar ballistic strikes, or large drone swarms, at or near US-linked facilities in Jordan and western Iraq. The Muwaffaq Salti and Prince Faisal incidents demonstrate Tehran’s willingness to expand the target set to Jordan, testing US resolve without directly striking GCC soil. US forces will respond by thickening air defenses and possibly conducting limited retaliatory strikes on IRGC-linked assets or militia depots in Syria or Iraq. Confirmation would be at least one further attack claim against US-associated bases in Jordan/Iraq or disclosed interdictions of launch teams; denial would be a negotiated quiet period…
Key indicators we're watching
- Recent Iranian strike on US ammo depot in Jordan
- Documented increase in Kheibar Shekan missile use and coordinated drone salvos
- CENTCOM labeling regional threat as HIGH and highlighting base vulnerabilities
Pro features include
- 60+ analytical tools across markets and intelligence
- Custom alerts, watchlists, and AOI monitoring
- Daily Pro brief at 6 PM ET — 12 hours before free tier
- Full forecast archive and historical analyses
Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →