Published: · Region: Iraq · Category: Forecast

Iranian Missile and Drone Launches Toward US-Linked Bases Likely to Recur Tonight

Theater: Iraq
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-07-24
Moderate confidence (70%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH

Executive summary

Within the next 24 hours, Iran is likely to conduct at least one additional missile or drone salvo toward US-linked facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan, or Bahrain in response to the latest US strikes on 16 Iranian sites. This will aim to signal resolve without directly striking core Gulf oil infrastructure. US and partner air defenses will probably intercept most inbound threats, but even failed attacks will widen engagement envelopes and strain interceptor stockpiles. Confirmation would come via fresh NOTAMs, airspace closures, or official statements on interceptions; a full 24-hour lull with de-escalatory messaging from Tehran would weaken this forecast.

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →