# [24H] Iranian Missile and Drone Launches Toward US-Linked Bases Likely to Recur Tonight

*Issued Friday, July 24, 2026 at 9:10 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-07-24T09:10:52.583Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-25T09:10:52.583Z (21h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz
**Affected Assets**: US Military Installations in Erbil and Jordan, Patriot and THAAD Interceptor Stockpiles, Gulf Aviation Corridors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/18328.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Iran is likely to conduct at least one additional missile or drone salvo toward US-linked facilities in Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan, or Bahrain in response to the latest US strikes on 16 Iranian sites. This will aim to signal resolve without directly striking core Gulf oil infrastructure. US and partner air defenses will probably intercept most inbound threats, but even failed attacks will widen engagement envelopes and strain interceptor stockpiles. Confirmation would come via fresh NOTAMs, airspace closures, or official statements on interceptions; a full 24-hour lull with de-escalatory messaging from Tehran would weaken this forecast.

## Drivers

- Reports of Iranian missile and drone attacks on Erbil, Jordan, and Bahrain after US strikes
- 13 consecutive nights of US strikes inside Iran including missile city and IRGC bases
- Emerging trend: U.S.–Iran conflict normalizes into sustained air-maritime confrontation around Hormuz