Ukraine Expands Strategic Drone and Missile Campaign Against Russian Refining Network
Theater: Southern Russia
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-06-25
Moderate confidence (73%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH
Executive summary
Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian oil depots and refineries beyond Ufa and Krasnodar, aiming to systematically degrade Moscow’s refining and logistics capacity. The campaign will target facilities balancing high strategic value and relative air-defense vulnerability, likely including nodes in southern Russia and the Volga–Ural region. This will intensify Russia’s internal fuel crunch, forcing choices between domestic supply, military needs, and exports, and may prompt Russia to reallocate air-defense assets away from front lines. Confirmation would be at least one more successful strike on major Russian refining infrastructure; denial would be an abrupt halt in such operations, possibly…
Key indicators we're watching
- Recent confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Poltavskaya depot and Ufa refineries
- Ukrainian leadership framing war as entering a new deep-strike phase
- Russia’s visible vulnerability in fuel supply and air-defense distribution
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →