# [7D] Ukraine Expands Strategic Drone and Missile Campaign Against Russian Refining Network

*Issued Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 11:22 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-25T11:22:36.679Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-02T11:22:36.679Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 73% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Volga–Ural region, Occupied Crimea, Eastern Ukraine frontlines
**Affected Assets**: Russian diesel and gasoline exports, Urals and other Russian crude blends, Rail and pipeline logistics to front-line forces
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/14704.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian oil depots and refineries beyond Ufa and Krasnodar, aiming to systematically degrade Moscow’s refining and logistics capacity. The campaign will target facilities balancing high strategic value and relative air-defense vulnerability, likely including nodes in southern Russia and the Volga–Ural region. This will intensify Russia’s internal fuel crunch, forcing choices between domestic supply, military needs, and exports, and may prompt Russia to reallocate air-defense assets away from front lines. Confirmation would be at least one more successful strike on major Russian refining infrastructure; denial would be an abrupt halt in such operations, possibly due to Western pressure or technical setbacks.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Poltavskaya depot and Ufa refineries
- Ukrainian leadership framing war as entering a new deep-strike phase
- Russia’s visible vulnerability in fuel supply and air-defense distribution