Published: · Region: Europe · Category: Forecast

Global Diesel and Jet Fuel Markets Tighten Further on Russian Product Shortages and UK Ban

Theater: Europe
Time horizon: 30d
Published: 2026-06-12
Moderate confidence (70%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH

Executive summary

Over the next 30 days, global diesel and jet fuel markets will tighten further as Russian domestic shortages and export restrictions intersect with the UK’s formal end date for imports of Russian diesel and jet. European and some emerging-market importers will face higher prices and competition for non-Russian barrels, benefiting Middle Eastern and US Gulf refiners. Freight patterns will shift, with more transatlantic and Middle East–Europe product flows and potential supply gaps in Africa and Latin America. Confirmation would be widening diesel crack spreads, rising jet fuel prices, and documented declines in Russian exports to Europe; disconfirmation would be a rapid rerouting of alternative supplies that keeps spreads stable.

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