Published: · Region: Global · Category: Forecast

Prolonged Hormuz Risk and Russia Outages Drive Structural Upturn in Global Refining Margins

Theater: Global
Time horizon: 30d
Published: 2026-06-12
Moderate confidence (70%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH

Executive summary

Over 30 days, persistent Hormuz insecurity combined with Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries is likely to create a structural upturn in global refining margins, especially for middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. Regional dislocations—US short of Korean jet fuel, Europe wary of Russian products, and Asia hedging Hormuz exposure—will support complex refiners with flexible crude slates and product slates. Higher refining profits may encourage capacity utilization but will also feed through to inflation and transport costs worldwide. Confirmation would be sustained elevation of diesel and jet cracks across major hubs and strong earnings guidance from refiners; denial would be a credible, enforced Iran deal and a lull in…

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →