# [30D] Prolonged Hormuz Risk and Russia Outages Drive Structural Upturn in Global Refining Margins

*Issued Friday, June 12, 2026 at 2:27 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-06-12T02:27:43.582Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-07-12T02:27:43.582Z (30d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, US, Europe, East Asia
**Affected Assets**: Diesel and Jet Fuel Crack Spreads, Refining Company Equities, Global Inflation-Linked Bonds, Shipping and Airline Operating Costs
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/13016.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over 30 days, persistent Hormuz insecurity combined with Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries is likely to create a structural upturn in global refining margins, especially for middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. Regional dislocations—US short of Korean jet fuel, Europe wary of Russian products, and Asia hedging Hormuz exposure—will support complex refiners with flexible crude slates and product slates. Higher refining profits may encourage capacity utilization but will also feed through to inflation and transport costs worldwide. Confirmation would be sustained elevation of diesel and jet cracks across major hubs and strong earnings guidance from refiners; denial would be a credible, enforced Iran deal and a lull in strikes on Russian refineries.

## Drivers

- Korean jet fuel diversion away from US toward Japan
- Ukrainian strike on Afipsky refinery and ongoing deep-strike trend
- Weaponization of Hormuz and elevated energy risk premium