Published: · Region: Western and Central Russia · Category: Forecast

Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign Further Reduces Russian Refining Capacity

Theater: Western and Central Russia
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-05-27
Moderate confidence (75%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL

Executive summary

Over the next 7 days, Ukraine will conduct multiple additional drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries, depots, and logistics hubs, likely targeting 3–7 sizable facilities, which could cumulatively shave another few percentage points off Russia’s short-term refined product output. These strikes will exploit gaps in Russian air defenses highlighted by previous attacks and will aim to increase costs for Moscow’s war machine and export revenues. Russia will respond with intensified missile and glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and urban centers, sustaining the cross-border strike duel trend. A lull in strikes due to weather, asset depletion, or diplomatic pressure is possible but not the central expectation.

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →