# [7D] Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign Further Reduces Russian Refining Capacity

*Issued Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 8:06 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-27T20:06:10.883Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-03T20:06:10.883Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western and Central Russia, Occupied Crimea, Eastern and Central Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and storage terminals, Russian rail and fuel logistics, Ukrainian power grid and industrial facilities
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/11316.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Ukraine will conduct multiple additional drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries, depots, and logistics hubs, likely targeting 3–7 sizable facilities, which could cumulatively shave another few percentage points off Russia’s short-term refined product output. These strikes will exploit gaps in Russian air defenses highlighted by previous attacks and will aim to increase costs for Moscow’s war machine and export revenues. Russia will respond with intensified missile and glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and urban centers, sustaining the cross-border strike duel trend. A lull in strikes due to weather, asset depletion, or diplomatic pressure is possible but not the central expectation.

## Drivers

- Rosstat-confirmed drop in Russian oil-product output linked to Ukrainian strikes
- Emerging trend of 'Ukrainian logistics lockdown strategy' and 'deepening cross-border strike duel'
- Recent documented attacks across Russia and occupied Crimea, including sinking of a Grad ship