Ukraine–Russia deep-strike campaign to further degrade Russian refining and logistics capacity
Theater: Southern and western Russia
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-05-23
High confidence (80%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH
Executive summary
Over the coming seven days, Ukraine is likely to sustain and broaden its deep-strike campaign against Russian refineries, fuel depots, and key logistics nodes, including Black Sea ports and rail hubs supporting southern operations. Successful strikes on Novorossiysk and inland logistics (e.g., Belgorod, routes toward Mariupol) demonstrate growing range and targeting sophistication that Kyiv will exploit. Russia will respond with intensified missile and drone barrages on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, maintaining high civilian risk.
Key indicators we're watching
- Emerging trend of Ukrainian deep strikes structurally degrading Russia’s refining capacity
- Recent multiple hits on Novorossiysk and supply routes
- Russia’s consistent retaliatory doctrine targeting Ukrainian urban and energy infrastructure
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →