# [7D] Ukraine–Russia deep-strike campaign to further degrade Russian refining and logistics capacity

*Issued Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-23T05:09:15.678Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-30T05:09:15.678Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern and western Russia, Black Sea littoral, Eastern and central Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and depots, Rail and port logistics, Ukrainian power grid and civilian infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10739.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the coming seven days, Ukraine is likely to sustain and broaden its deep-strike campaign against Russian refineries, fuel depots, and key logistics nodes, including Black Sea ports and rail hubs supporting southern operations. Successful strikes on Novorossiysk and inland logistics (e.g., Belgorod, routes toward Mariupol) demonstrate growing range and targeting sophistication that Kyiv will exploit. Russia will respond with intensified missile and drone barrages on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, maintaining high civilian risk.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of Ukrainian deep strikes structurally degrading Russia’s refining capacity
- Recent multiple hits on Novorossiysk and supply routes
- Russia’s consistent retaliatory doctrine targeting Ukrainian urban and energy infrastructure