Global diesel and gasoline cracks remain elevated on Russian outages despite weak European demand
Theater: Europe
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-05-21
Moderate confidence (70%)
Risk direction: volatile · Impact: CRITICAL
Executive summary
Over the coming week, spreads for diesel and gasoline versus crude are likely to stay elevated or widen slightly, as Russia’s curtailed refining capacity removes significant product from the export market, especially to Europe and Africa. Even with soft Eurozone PMI data signaling weaker demand, the supply shock will tighten global balances and support higher margins for non-Russian refiners. Some substitution from crude exports to refined products by other producers will occur but cannot fully offset the gap in the short term. A contrarian scenario would be surprisingly rapid Russian repairs or policy-driven output shifts elsewhere (e.g., US or Middle East), easing the pressure.
Key indicators we're watching
- Reports that over 30% of Russian gasoline output is affected
- Multiple confirmations of sustained refinery outages in central Russia
- Warnings of refined products supply shock in the feed
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →