# [7D] Global diesel and gasoline cracks remain elevated on Russian outages despite weak European demand

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T11:09:35.067Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-28T11:09:35.067Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Europe, Africa, Asia, Russia
**Affected Assets**: Diesel cracks, Gasoline cracks, European utility and transport sectors, Emerging-market fuel importers
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10522.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the coming week, spreads for diesel and gasoline versus crude are likely to stay elevated or widen slightly, as Russia’s curtailed refining capacity removes significant product from the export market, especially to Europe and Africa. Even with soft Eurozone PMI data signaling weaker demand, the supply shock will tighten global balances and support higher margins for non-Russian refiners. Some substitution from crude exports to refined products by other producers will occur but cannot fully offset the gap in the short term. A contrarian scenario would be surprisingly rapid Russian repairs or policy-driven output shifts elsewhere (e.g., US or Middle East), easing the pressure.

## Drivers

- Reports that over 30% of Russian gasoline output is affected
- Multiple confirmations of sustained refinery outages in central Russia
- Warnings of refined products supply shock in the feed