Published: · Region: Dnipro region · Category: Forecast

Continued Russian Missile and Drone Strikes on Dnipro and Southern Ukraine

Theater: Dnipro region
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-05-18
High confidence (80%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH

Executive summary

Over the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to continue high-intensity missile and Shahed/Geran-2 drone strikes against Dnipro and at least one additional urban/industrial target in central or southern Ukraine (likely Odesa or Kryvyi Rih). The recent back-to-back mass barrages indicate a focused campaign against Ukrainian defense-industrial assets and urban infrastructure rather than a one-off strike. Ukraine’s air defenses will intercept a majority of drones but will be partially saturated, leading to additional infrastructure and possible civilian damage. This will further deplete Ukrainian air-defense munitions and pressure European capitals for more air-defense transfers.

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →