Russian Large-Scale Missile and Drone Strikes Resume Against Ukrainian Infrastructure
Theater: Ukraine
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-05-13
High confidence (80%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: HIGH
Executive summary
Within the next 24 hours, Russia is likely to execute the prepared large combined missile and drone strike package against Ukrainian targets, focusing on energy, logistics hubs, and air-defense nodes. The end of the brief truce and prior reporting that Russia is 'finalizing' a large strike strongly suggest imminent execution. Targets are likely to include Dnipro, Kharkiv, and logistics lines supporting the eastern front, continuing the attritional air campaign. Ukrainian air defenses will mitigate but not fully prevent infrastructure damage and civilian disruption.
Key indicators we're watching
- Warning that Russia has ended a short truce and is finalizing a large combined missile and drone strike
- Ongoing Russian Iskander activity toward Dnipro
- Trend of post-ceasefire Russian escalation consolidating an attritional air–land campaign
Pro features include
- 60+ analytical tools across markets and intelligence
- Custom alerts, watchlists, and AOI monitoring
- Daily Pro brief at 6 PM ET — 12 hours before free tier
- Full forecast archive and historical analyses
Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →