Published: · Region: Eurozone · Category: Forecast

European Gas Prices Likely to Stay Above €70/MWh Amid Ukraine-Russia Infrastructure Strikes

Theater: Eurozone
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-08-28
Moderate confidence (75%)
Risk direction: volatile · Impact: HIGH

Full prediction

Over the next 24 hours, TTF and other European benchmark gas prices are likely to hold above €70/MWh, with intraday spikes on any new reports of infrastructure damage in Russia or Ukraine. The combination of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Russian attacks on Ukrainian logistics heightens perceived risk to regional energy flows and storage planning. This will pressure power utilities, energy-intensive industry, and European policymakers balancing storage refill with affordability concerns. Confirmation would be sustained elevated futures prices and widening volatility; a sharp de-escalation in cross-border strikes or surprise LNG supply news could break this pattern.

Drivers

Affected regions

Affected assets

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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →