Iranian Follow-On Missile and Drone Strikes on US Gulf Bases Likely Within 24 Hours
Theater: Jordan
Time horizon: 24h
Published: 2026-07-18
Moderate confidence (70%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL
Executive summary
Iran is likely to conduct at least one additional round of missile or drone strikes against US or coalition-linked bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, or Saudi Arabia in the next 24 hours. Tehran’s leadership has framed current operations as an escalating campaign of “attack and total destruction” if US strikes continue, making a pause unlikely without a visible US de-escalation signal. This will further test regional air-defense networks, strain host-nation politics, and increase US domestic pressure for a decisive retaliatory package. Confirmation would come from new launch reports from western or southern Iran and impact reporting on US or host-nation bases; denial would be a verified launch halt combined…
Key indicators we're watching
- Direct Iranian missile and drone attacks on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base with reported US casualties
- Multiple Iranian strikes on US-linked facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and missile alerts in Saudi Arabia
- Iranian senior advisor warning of shift to 'attack and total destruction' if US operations continue
- Fresh ballistic launches from Khomeyn, western Iran, amid ongoing clashes
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →