Sustained Ukrainian deep-strike campaign keeps at least 20–25% of Russian refining capacity offline
Theater: Central Russia
Time horizon: 7d
Published: 2026-05-21
Moderate confidence (65%)
Risk direction: escalatory · Impact: CRITICAL
Executive summary
Over the next week, Ukraine is likely to maintain a high operational tempo of long-range drone strikes targeting Russian refineries, depots, and possibly power infrastructure, preventing rapid restoration of currently offline facilities. Russia will attempt emergency repairs and reconfiguration of fuel logistics, but cumulative attacks will keep roughly 20–25% of refining capacity constrained, particularly in central Russia. Moscow may increase air defense density around critical plants, leading to higher interception rates but not full protection. A contrarian scenario involves effective Russian hardening and electronic warfare sharply reducing strike success, allowing faster capacity recovery than expected.
Key indicators we're watching
- Reuters assessment of 25% refining capacity offline after sustained strikes
- Zelensky’s explicit commitment to continued ‘long-range sanctions’
- Demonstrated ability to hit distant targets like Saratov and Syzran (~800 km)
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Forecasts are generated automatically from open-source signal data (event tracking and conflict telemetry) with confidence calibrated against historical outcomes. Read the full methodology →