Denmark’s intelligence service says Russia likely to step up hybrid operations and sabotage in Europe
Denmark’s defence intelligence service warns that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid warfare campaign against Western countries and NATO in the coming months, with more frequent hostile activity and a low but rising risk of direct military incidents.
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service is warning that European countries should prepare for a more aggressive Russian hybrid campaign that could bring more sabotage and other hostile activity inside NATO territory.
The Danish assessment, made public in outline, says Russia is likely to intensify hybrid warfare against Western states and the alliance in the coming months. According to the service, attacks are expected to become more frequent and could have greater consequences, while the risk of direct military incidents is described as low but increasing.
Hybrid warfare covers a range of actions that stop short of open war, such as sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and operations by deniable actors. Danish intelligence judges that Moscow is relying more on these tools to pressure countries that support Ukraine, while trying to avoid a conventional clash with NATO forces.
The threat described includes a growing risk to critical infrastructure across Europe. That encompasses undersea data cables, power links between national grids, gas pipelines, offshore energy installations, rail lines and ports that move military and civilian cargo. When such systems are hit, the effects are felt by households and businesses through outages, disrupted communications and delays.
For governments, the Danish warning points to higher costs and more attention directed at protecting assets that cross borders and territorial waters. Coastal states in particular may be pushed to expand surveillance at sea, step up inspections of suspicious vessels and coordinate with allies on mapping and safeguarding key cables and pipelines.
The reference to a low but rising risk of direct military incidents adds another layer. That risk can include close encounters between ships, aircraft or submarines, and miscalculations during shows of force or surveillance. In a context where Russia is seen as probing more actively, a collision, harassment of survey vessels or interference with patrol aircraft could quickly take on political weight.
Denmark’s location at the entrance to the Baltic and near important energy and data routes gives its assessment additional resonance. It fits with concerns voiced by other European states that have reported suspected Russian-linked sabotage and cyber activity in recent years.
Signals that the threat picture is being taken more seriously would include new EU or NATO initiatives focused on infrastructure protection, increased naval and air patrols in areas dense with critical assets, and more transparent investigations into unexplained damage at sea or on land. If states begin attributing more incidents directly to Russian hybrid activity, the line between shadow conflict and open confrontation will become narrower.
Sources
- OSINT