Reports: Pakistan Deepens Afghan Airstrikes, Hits TTP at Former US Bases
Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-09-25T16:21:47.555Z
Summary
Open‑source reporting at 16:00 UTC indicates Pakistani jets struck Tehrik‑i‑Taliban Pakistan targets in three Afghan provinces, including facilities on ex‑US bases Salerno and Chapman. The breadth and depth of the operation mark a sharp escalation in Pakistan’s cross‑border campaign and raises the risk of direct confrontation with the Taliban government, with implications for regional security, Chinese projects, and investor exposure to Pakistan.
Details
Pakistani forces have reportedly widened their air campaign inside Afghanistan, conducting coordinated strikes against Tehrik‑i‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP) positions in at least three provinces and targeting infrastructure at former US bases, according to OSINT reporting filed at 16:00 UTC. The operation goes beyond previous limited cross‑border actions, signaling Islamabad’s willingness to hit deep into Afghan territory to dismantle TTP sanctuaries despite the political and security cost of angering Kabul.
According to the 16:00 UTC report, Pakistani aircraft struck TTP targets in Khost, Paktika, and Kandahar provinces. In Khost, three storage shelters in two locations were hit, including two at the former Forward Operating Base Salerno and one at the former CIA base Chapman—both iconic ex‑US installations that have since been repurposed by local armed actors. Additional TTP sites in Paktika and Kandahar were also reportedly engaged. Casualty figures and damage assessments remain unclear, and there is no official confirmation yet from Islamabad or the Taliban government, but geolocation references match known former US facilities, lending credibility to the targeting claims.
For people on the ground, deeper strikes mean renewed fear of mass‑casualty incidents in areas that had seen far fewer air operations since the Taliban takeover. Civilians living near ex‑coalition bases may now find themselves again adjacent to high‑value targets. Afghan authorities face a dilemma: absorb strikes and risk domestic backlash, or retaliate and risk open confrontation with Pakistan. In Pakistan, border communities could see stepped‑up TTP retaliation, including bombings or raids, raising the immediate threat to local populations, logistics drivers, and foreign engineering staff near the frontier.
Militarily, this is a significant inflection. Pakistan is now treating TTP sanctuary inside Afghanistan as a strategic, not tactical, problem, prepared to employ airpower against targets far from the immediate border. Hitting former US bases suggests that these sites have evolved into logistics or command nodes for TTP, and Pakistan aims to deny the group hardened infrastructure. The Taliban government, which has bristled at accusations of harboring TTP, is likely to interpret strikes on such symbolic locations as a direct challenge to its sovereignty and control.
For markets, the main pressure point is Pakistan risk. A sustained air campaign and possible Taliban countermeasures—such as cross‑border fire, tolerating anti‑Pakistan militias, or restricting trade—would complicate overland commerce through the Khyber and Spin Boldak corridors and add another layer of risk to already fragile Pakistani finances. Sovereign credit spreads, the rupee, and local equities in banking, infrastructure, and energy could all face renewed selling if investors price in higher security costs and political volatility. Chinese Belt and Road projects, particularly those linking western China through Pakistan to the Arabian Sea, will be stress‑tested if insecurity expands along feeder routes through Afghanistan.
In the next 24–48 hours, key signals to watch include: any formal Taliban statement or threat of retaliation; confirmation or denial from Pakistan’s military spokesman with details on targets and claimed effects; reports of TTP reprisal attacks inside Pakistan; and any diplomatic moves by China, the US, or Gulf states to mediate. A shift from isolated airstrikes to a declared cross‑border campaign—or Taliban authorization of armed responses—would move this from a serious bilateral crisis to a destabilizing regional conflict with wider market consequences.
MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Elevates geopolitical risk across South Asia. Limited immediate effect on oil, but raises medium‑term risk premia on Pakistani assets (sovereign spreads, FX), and could chill investor appetite for Afghanistan‑linked infrastructure and Chinese BRI corridors. Any Taliban military response or escalation near key corridors would start to feed into broader EM risk and regional logistics pricing.
Sources
- OSINT