Danish Intelligence Warns of Rising Risk of Russian Move Against NATO and Hybrid War Across Europe
Denmark’s military intelligence service now considers a limited Russian operation against a NATO state a low but steadily rising risk and urges Europe to prepare for large-scale hybrid warfare.
European security officials are starting to spell out risks they once discussed only in private briefings.
Denmark’s military intelligence service warns that Russia could carry out a limited military operation against a NATO member in the coming months. The agency still judges the probability as low, but says the risk is constantly increasing.
Its scenarios stop well short of a full invasion. Analysts highlight options such as sending a small Russian military contingent into another country under the pretext of protecting local Russian populations, or carrying out missile or drone strikes on targets inside NATO territory.
In the same period, U.S. intelligence, according to European media reports, has warned governments that Russia may be preparing drone operations against Spain, France, or Italy. Those potential operations have not been described in detail, but they would move the threat discussion from NATO’s eastern flank to its political and economic core.
Danish intelligence couples its warning with a call for public authorities and private companies to prepare for large-scale hybrid warfare across Europe. Hybrid warfare blends tools such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage of infrastructure. For operators of energy systems, ports, telecoms, and logistics networks, that means treating attacks on physical assets and networks as practical risks, not distant scenarios.
The overlapping alerts from Danish and U.S. services point to a common concern: that Moscow may test NATO and the European Union through limited, deniable actions rather than through a conventional attack. How governments respond—by hardening infrastructure, running visible readiness drills, or clarifying red lines—will show whether they treat these assessments as routine analysis or as a prompt for immediate change.
Sources
- OSINT