Danish Intelligence: Russian Invasion of a NATO State ‘Can No Longer Be Ruled Out’ as Hybrid Threats Rise
Denmark’s defence intelligence chief says a Russian invasion of a NATO member is unlikely but no longer dismissible, and urges public and private institutions across Europe to prepare for a sharp escalation in hybrid warfare.
Denmark’s military intelligence service now says a Russian attack on a NATO member is unlikely but no longer something it can dismiss, and it wants the rest of Europe to get ready for a tougher phase of confrontation.
On 24 September, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (FE) said it “can no longer rule out” a Russian invasion of a NATO country. FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel stressed there are no signs of an imminent offensive, but the assessment marks a shift: the threat is judged higher than in previous years.
From the same report, Danish military intelligence urged both public authorities and private-sector organisations to prepare for a large-scale intensification of hybrid warfare across Europe. In this context, hybrid warfare refers to pressure that falls short of open conventional war, such as cyber operations, disinformation, sabotage, and other deniable activities aimed at critical infrastructure and political stability.
That warning widens the frame beyond traditional defence planners. Power grids, telecoms networks, ports, financial systems and logistics hubs—many of them run by private companies—are highlighted as potential targets. FE’s call for preparation “across all of Europe” extends the concern well beyond states that border Russia or Belarus.
Ahrenkiel’s message also challenges the idea that the war in Ukraine is neatly contained. Denmark, a NATO member watching Russian activity in the Baltic and North Atlantic, is signalling that both an invasion scenario and a broader hybrid campaign now sit inside its realistic planning assumptions.
What happens next will depend on whether other European intelligence services echo Denmark’s assessment, whether NATO adapts its deterrence posture, and how quickly EU governments and companies move to harden critical infrastructure and improve resilience against hybrid attacks.
Sources
- OSINT