Published: · Region: Global · Category: markets

Iran War Turns China Into Reluctant Oil-Price Stabilizer, Exposing New Dependence

When fighting around Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, traders braced for oil to rocket past $150 and tip the world into recession. Instead, Brent has stayed under $90, largely because China has quietly used its leverage to keep crude flowing and prices contained. The story explains how Beijing gained this power, who now depends on it, and what happens if China’s priorities shift.

The war involving Iran and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz should have been every energy planner’s nightmare. With one of the world’s most critical chokepoints compromised, forecasts of oil prices above $150 a barrel and a global recession did not seem alarmist so much as inevitable. Yet as of mid-August, Brent crude remains below $90, and the feared price shock has not materialized. The main reason, according to energy and geopolitical assessments, is not a sudden burst of spare capacity in the West or a miraculous drop in demand. It is China. Beijing has emerged as a de facto stabilizer of global oil prices, using its purchasing…

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