Published: · Region: Global · Category: markets

Iran war disruption turns China into reluctant stabilizer of global oil prices

When war around Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, traders braced for oil to rocket past $150 a barrel and tip the world toward recession. Instead, Brent crude has hovered below $90, thanks largely to China’s leverage over producers and flows — a shift that quietly hands Beijing new influence over energy security far beyond Asia.

The war centered on Iran was supposed to trigger an oil shock; instead, it has rewritten who steadies the market when a chokepoint goes dark. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut by conflict, analysts warned that crude prices could blast past $150 a barrel and drag the global economy toward recession. Yet months into the disruption, Brent crude remains under $90, a level that is painful but far from catastrophic. The main reason, according to emerging energy analyses, is not a sudden burst of restraint in the Gulf or an unseen surge of non-OPEC supply. It is China. Through a mix of long-term contracts, quiet diplomacy with producers, and…

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