Published: · Severity: WARNING · Category: Breaking

Fresh Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Major Russian Oil Refineries

Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-09-25T11:31:35.090Z

Summary

Ukraine reportedly struck the Permnefteorgsintez refinery in Perm and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery overnight. These are large plants with substantial output of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, adding to the cumulative degradation of Russian refining capacity and supporting refined product cracks and a modest crude risk premium.

Details

  1. What happened: New reports indicate Ukrainian drones attacked the Permnefteorgsintez refinery in Perm (owned by LUKOIL) and another refinery in Novoshakhtinsk overnight. Permnefteorgsintez is described as one of Russia’s largest refineries, with over 13 million tonnes per year (c. 260 kb/d) of crude throughput capacity, producing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Novoshakhtinsk is a key refinery in southern Russia near the Ukrainian border. This comes amid a broader, ongoing Ukrainian campaign against Russian refining and petrochemical targets.

  2. Supply/demand impact: The immediate quantitative impact depends on the level and duration of damage, which is not specified yet, but even temporary outages at Perm could remove 100–260 kb/d of Russian products from the market if processing is curbed. Even if only partial capacity is affected or operations are briefly suspended for inspections, recurrent strikes are increasing operational risk, insurance costs, and planned maintenance downtime. On the crude side, Russian upstream production is less immediately affected; crude can be redirected or stored, but bottlenecks in refining and logistics can ultimately force production shut-ins if sustained.

  3. Affected assets and directional bias: The key market channels are (i) European and global refined product markets (diesel/gasoil, gasoline, jet), and (ii) risk premium in Brent and Urals spreads. Expect supportive pressure on ICE gasoil and European diesel cracks, marginally bullish on Brent and gasoil timespreads, and mildly supportive for European natural gas via increased oil-product substitution and higher power-sector fuel costs. Russian product exports to global markets (including via ship-to-ship and shadow fleet) become incrementally less reliable, which can tighten margins for import-dependent regions.

  4. Historical precedent: Earlier waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries in 2024–2025 produced notable short-term spikes in European diesel cracks and localized supply tightness, even when physical disruptions were moderate. Markets tend to price a risk premium around perceived sustainability of Russian exports.

  5. Duration of impact: Structural rather than purely transient. Even if these particular facilities resume operations quickly, the demonstrated strike range and frequency increase the long-term risk discount applied to Russian refining infrastructure and product flows. Expect persistent, though fluctuating, risk premium in products and in the Brent complex over the coming weeks, contingent on confirmation of damage and any follow-on strikes.

AFFECTED ASSETS: Brent Crude, ICE Gasoil, European diesel crack spreads, Urals crude discounts, Russian product export differentials, EUR/RUB

Sources

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