Fresh Ukrainian drone strikes hit major Perm, Novoshakhtinsk refineries
Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-09-25T11:51:30.997Z
Summary
Ukrainian drones reportedly struck LUKOIL’s Permnefteorgsintez refinery (13mtpa capacity) and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery overnight. If damage is material and cumulative with prior attacks, this further tightens Russian product export capacity and sustains a geopolitical risk premium in oil and refined products.
Details
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What happened: Reports indicate Ukrainian drones attacked the Permnefteorgsintez refinery in Perm, owned by LUKOIL, one of Russia’s largest refineries with capacity over 13 million tonnes per year (~260 kb/d). The same report notes that another refinery in Novoshakhtinsk was also hit. These facilities are important producers of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and Novoshakhtinsk has historically been oriented toward exports into global markets via the Black Sea.
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Supply impact: Headline capacity at Perm is ~260 kb/d; Novoshakhtinsk is ~100–150 kb/d. The actual outage depends on damage to distillation units, power, and storage, which is not yet clarified. Given that both assets have been subject to repeated Ukrainian strikes in recent months (per existing alerts on this theme), the incremental market-moving element here is potential cumulative and prolonged downtime rather than a single isolated incident. Even a partial sustained outage of 150–250 kb/d of runs, particularly in export-focused units, would further constrain Russian diesel, naphtha and gasoline exports. Russia remains a key marginal supplier of diesel and other products to global markets, especially to Africa, LATAM, and some Asian buyers after EU embargoes re-routed flows.
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Affected assets and directional bias: The main impact is on refined products and the crude balance for Russia. If outages are confirmed and prolonged, expect upward pressure on:
- ICE gasoil and European diesel cracks vs Brent (bullish)
- Naphtha and gasoline crack spreads (bullish)
- Urals/ESPO differentials could soften at the margin if crude backs up domestically, but this may be offset if Russia curtails crude exports to cover domestic product needs. Benchmark crude (Brent/WTI) is likely to see a modest risk-premium bid given escalation risk and the size of the targeted plant, but the direct volumetric hit relative to global crude supply is limited.
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Historical precedent: Earlier in 2024–2025, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries produced short-lived but notable spikes in diesel cracks and localized product tightness, especially when distillation units were demonstrably offline for weeks. Markets have become somewhat conditioned, so the surprise factor depends on confirmation of significant new damage and downtime.
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Duration and structural impact: Near-term impact is likely to be a days-to-weeks product-market issue, with higher volatility in diesel and gasoline spreads. If Ukrainian forces continue a systematic campaign degrading Russian refining capacity, the effect becomes more structural: sustained higher product cracks, altered Russian export patterns, and a persistent geopolitical risk premium in refined products. Until concrete outage data emerges, this event should be treated as a moderately bullish reinforcement of an existing theme rather than a standalone shock.
AFFECTED ASSETS: ICE Gasoil futures, European diesel cracks, Gasoline cracks, Brent Crude, Urals crude differentials, Russian product export spreads
Sources
- OSINT