Fresh Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Major Russian Oil Refineries
Severity: WARNING
Detected: 2026-09-25T11:11:30.788Z
Summary
Ukrainian drones reportedly hit the large Permnefteorgsintez refinery in Perm and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, adding to the ongoing campaign against Russian downstream assets. If damage materially curtails runs, this tightens Russian product exports and supports a refined product and crude risk premium.
Details
-
What happened: Reports indicate that on the night of September 25, Ukrainian drones attacked the Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Perm, owned by LUKOIL, as well as the Novoshakhtinsk refinery. Permnefteorgsintez is described as one of Russia’s largest refineries, with capacity above 13 million tonnes per year (roughly 260–270 kb/d), producing gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Novoshakhtinsk, located in Rostov region near Ukraine, has previously been targeted and is an important outlet for regional crude into light products. Details on the extent of physical damage, fires, or shutdown duration are not yet clear, but this follows a sustained Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure already flagged in earlier alerts.
-
Supply/demand impact: If Perm’s runs are significantly reduced even temporarily, the immediate effect is on Russian domestic product availability and export flows of gasoline and diesel. A 25–50% curtailment at Perm for a month would imply roughly 4–8 million barrels of lost product output. Novoshakhtinsk disruptions add to this, particularly for diesel and naphtha. Russia has already intermittently restricted exports of gasoline and diesel to stabilise its domestic market; additional hits increase the likelihood of further or longer-lasting export curbs. Globally, Russian clean product exports, especially diesel to Turkey, North Africa, and Latin America (via ship-to-ship and trading hubs), remain a key marginal supply source.
-
Affected assets and direction: The primary impact is a bullish bias for refined products (diesel/gasoil futures, gasoline cracks) and a modest positive risk premium for crude benchmarks (Brent, Urals differentials). Freight rates for product tankers out of Russia, the Black Sea, and Baltic could firm on rerouting and tighter supply. European diesel/gasoil spreads vs crude and time spreads are particularly sensitive.
-
Historical precedent: Earlier Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in 2024–2026 triggered noticeable but short-lived widening of diesel cracks and Brent strength of 1–3% when damage proved persistent. The market tends to fade such moves if repair times are short or if other exporters (Middle East, India, USGC) backfill barrels.
-
Duration of impact: The immediate impact is likely days to a few weeks, depending on confirmation of damage and restart timelines. If multiple large refineries, including Perm, face prolonged outages or repeated attacks, this could evolve into a structural premium in gasoil/diesel and sustained support for Brent. For now, traders should price in incremental upside risk rather than a structural shock, pending verification of outage severity.
AFFECTED ASSETS: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gasoil (ICE), RBOB Gasoline, Urals crude differentials, Product tanker freight (MR, LR1), Russian domestic fuel prices
Sources
- OSINT